Something is
happening in China that could have an impact on its future course and
on neighbours like India. Internal unrest in the large and diverse
country is nothing new, but things hit what looked like a climax of
sorts a month ago, in the midst of preparations for the scheduled
leadership change later this year.
The problems
began on the economic front. The pace of growth following Deng
Hsiaoping's reforms was literally world-shaking, but it also led to
rural poverty, urban over-development, land disputes and
environmental destruction causing dislocation of populations. India
is familiar with these very problems, but Indian people have outlets
for venting their anger and even scoring a victory or two, like they
did in Nandigram.
No such
safeguards existed for the Chinese. In 2006 villagers protested in
Dongshan, southern China, against seizure of their land for a power
plant project. Police firing killed at least 20 villagers and the
power plant was duly built. Urbanisation eliminated some 135 million
rural jobs in the first two decades of reform. Massive exodus from
village to city created not only ghettos in cities, but also social
tensions. Rural folks were no more welcome in the cities than Biharis
were in Raj Thackeray's Mumbai.
Liaoning in
the industrial north-east saw large-scale privatisation of
state-owned companies. In almost every deal government officials took
bribes and passed on functioning factories for a pittance. Locals
turned against the Government, their resentment fuelled by tens of
thousands of people becoming unemployed. Liaoning continues to be a
centre of popular protests against the authorities.
Ethnic
disturbances added to the agonies of growth. Xinjiang, China's
largest province, is as good as a Central Asian territory with Muslim
Uighurs making up 45 percent of the population. (Han component has
risen to 40 percent thanks to the official policy of population
transfer). Tibet, the second largest province, has also been taking
in large numbers of new Han settlers. But both provinces are standing
up to ruthless suppression, putting Beijing in a dilemma.
In the end,
it was a political problem – not economic or ethnic – that
plunged China into its most serious, if also secretive, crisis since
Mao. The centrepiece of the puzzle is Bo Xilai, who was China's
most powerful provincial leader, a member of the Politburo, and
poised to join the 9-man committee that rules China. In March he was
dismissed.
A month
earlier, Bo's police chief in his province of Chongqing, Wang Lijun,
went to the US embassy with documents to say that Bo's wife was
involved in the murder of a British businessman with whom she had
illegal financial transactions. There has been no word about Bo nor
Wang since then; both are presumably under some kind of arrest.
The
important point of this drama is that Bo Xilai had dared to float a
political philosophy of his own based on “core socialist values”
and a “red culture movement”. That was threatening enough for
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to warn against a new Cultural Revolution.
Coup rumours spread across China and internet sites and blogs were
restricted or banned. Tension prevails.
Does the
removal of Bo Xilai mean also the removal of the policy threat he
posed? Deng Hsiaoping himself was turned into a non-person by Mao.
But there were enough leaders who secretly agreed with him that
Mao's excesses were alienating the people. They were right and Deng
rose again.
The
pendulum has swung to the other side now. Instead of socialist
excesses, China today reels under the excesses of crony capitalism.
China's new leadership will have to admit that these are times when
even America and Europe are witnessing popular uprisings against the
greed and exploitation that capitalism breeds. There should be vast
sections of people in China who would welcome some kind of “core
socialist values” checkmating the freebooters and fatcats. In
China, US or India, the ultimate question about growth is: Do the
people feel fairly treated or do they feel cheated?